Wall Street Analysis

Wall Street indices ended yesterday’s declining trading session. The S&P 500 fell 0.20%, the Dow Jones closed 0.60% lower, while the Russell 2000 depreciated 1.36%. Nasdaq gained 0.17%

Asian indices traded mixed. Nikkei and Kospi fell while S & P / ASX 200 and Chinese indices won.

The DAX futures market indicates a declining opening of the European session.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg said that the next Japanese stimulus package will most likely come before the national elections (October 22, 2021) and will be worth 20-30 trillion JPY.

While the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) fell yesterday, the Nasdaq showed no signs of depletion. The US technology index gained almost 0.2% and marked a new all-time high. The resistance marked by the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent correction is currently being tested.

US100 Daily Chart

EURUSD Analysis.

While the economic calendar of the day is quite empty, there is one event that stands out. The FOMC minutes will be published this evening. Some Fed members have suggested that they begin concise talks at the most recent FOMC meeting on June 15-16, and the minutes can confirm that. In this case, the market reaction will depend on whether the process of tightening monetary conditions has only been mentioned or discussed in depth.

EURUSD stopped what appeared to be an upward correction this week and retreated to the support area at 1.1820. This level is marked by a local high as well as a 78.6% withdrawal of the upward movement that began at the end of March 2021. The pair may become more active after the publication of the FOMC minutes. In the event of a rebound, the major resistance to be tracked can be found in the 1.1920 area and is marked by a 61.8% retreat and the upper limit of local market geometry

Eur/USD 4 Hour Chart

USD/JPY is attempting to move higher in Q3.

USD/JPY had been in a very tight spot past few years. At some point the narrowing volatility (wedge formation) was set to give- way, and because of this we have finally reached a resolution.

USD/JPY is trading above the 2015 and 2017 trend-lines ( a cleaner-looking wedge pattern). A breakout above the 2020 and 2019 highs would be a big development. This would be the first big step at (11240) crossed since touching the level just outside of the of the wedge. This would also have price surging series of lower-highs and lows created over the past few years.

A push beyond 11240 could spark a huge macro rally that pushes USD/JPY well into the 12000 level at some point. If the sneaking out of the wedge turns out to be a false breakout, then more of same choppy routine we’ve seen over the past few years may be in store. The April low at 10747 is considered the invalidation point.

USD/JPY WEEKLY CHART

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